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2026년 9월 21일 월요일
홈으로Stock Analysis전체 Applied Materials 기사

Applied Materials (AMAT) Q2 2026: $670M Paper Gain Drives 33% EPS Jump

작성자 MinJeKim

Applied Materials' operating business did accelerate this quarter — but nowhere near as much as the headline suggests. Diluted EPS of $3.51 was up 33.5% and net income rose 31.3% to $2.81 billion, yet operating income grew a far more modest 16.3% to $2.52 billion; the gap is almost entirely a $550 million swing in interest and other income, driven by unrealized mark-to-market gains on equity investments the company has not sold. The genuinely encouraging number is the operating margin of 31.9%, roughly 2.5 points above Applied's five-year average of 29.4% and the strongest showing in several years. The tension worth watching is that while accounting profit surged, free cash flow for the first six months actually fell 22% as capital expenditure jumped 44%.


1. Consolidated Balance Sheet

1-1. Key asset movements

Comparisons are against the October 26, 2025 fiscal year-end, since Applied's fiscal year closes on the last Sunday in October.

ItemOct 26, 2025 ($M)Apr 26, 2026 ($M)Change %
Cash and cash equivalents7,2416,301−13.0%
Accounts receivable5,1856,372+22.9%
Inventories5,9156,343+7.2%
Property, plant and equipment, net4,6105,255+14.0%
Goodwill3,7073,824+3.2%
Total assets36,29940,286+11.0%

The receivables build is the line that demands scrutiny. Accounts receivable rose 22.9% in six months against six-month revenue growth of just 4.6% — a mismatch that normally signals collection strain. On closer inspection it is less alarming than it appears: days sales outstanding on the quarter actually improved to 73.3 days from 79.3 days a year earlier, meaning the October base was seasonally depressed rather than the April figure being inflated. Inventory tells a similar story of controlled expansion, at 145.7 days versus 142.4 days a year ago, though work-in-process specifically climbed to $1,109 million from $914 million, consistent with a company building ahead of shipments rather than accumulating unsold stock.

Property, plant and equipment growing 14.0% in half a year is the more consequential shift, and it connects directly to the cash flow deterioration discussed in Section 3.

1-2. Debt structure — financial versus operating liabilities

Total liabilities rose only 3.1% to $16,377 million while assets grew 11.0%, so leverage fell in relative terms. Long-term debt (non-current) declined to $5,256 million from $6,455 million. The aggregate principal of senior unsecured notes stood at $5.3 billion with an estimated fair value of $4.9 billion — the discount to par reflecting that these were largely issued at coupons below prevailing rates. Applied entered a series of interest rate swaps during the first six months designated as fair value hedges against this fixed-rate exposure.

Set against $13,383 million in total cash, cash equivalents and investments, the debt load is immaterial as a solvency matter. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are modest: approximately $327 million in standby letters of credit and guarantee instruments, plus roughly $297 million in parent guarantees to banks.

1-3. Capital structure

Stockholders' equity rose 17.1% to $23,909 million, lifting the equity ratio to 59.3% from 56.2%. Retained earnings of $59,274 million now exceed total equity by a wide margin — the arithmetic consequence of decades of buybacks held as treasury stock under the cost method. This is a self-funded balance sheet in which essentially all capital is internally generated, not raised.


2. Consolidated Statement of Operations

2-1. Headline results

ItemQ2 FY2025 ($M)Q2 FY2026 ($M)Change6M FY2025 ($M)6M FY2026 ($M)Change
Revenue7,1007,910+11.4%14,26614,922+4.6%
Gross profit3,4853,947+13.3%6,9817,382+5.7%
Gross margin49.1%49.9%+0.8pt48.9%49.5%+0.6pt
Operating income2,1692,523+16.3%4,3444,354+0.2%
Operating margin30.5%31.9%+1.4pt30.5%29.2%−1.3pt
Net income2,1372,806+31.3%3,3224,832+45.5%
Diluted EPS ($)2.633.51+33.5%4.086.05+48.3%

The two columns tell opposite stories, and the six-month view is the more sobering one. Half-year operating income was effectively flat at $4,354 million versus $4,344 million, yet net income rose 45.5%. Reconciling that gap precisely: operating income contributed +$10 million, interest and other income contributed +$1,108 million, interest expense cost −$6 million, and a lower tax provision contributed +$398 million — totalling exactly the $1,510 million increase. In other words, essentially none of the first-half profit growth came from operations.

Two discrete items explain the flat half-year operating result. A $253 million legal settlement with the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security landed in the first quarter, alongside $12 million of restructuring charges. Adding both back, normalized six-month operating income was approximately $4,619 million, up 6.3% — a truer read on the underlying trajectory than the reported 0.2%.

The quarter itself is genuinely strong. Operating leverage of 1.43x (16.3% operating income growth on 11.4% revenue growth) is healthy, and both segments expanded margins: Semiconductor Systems to 35.1% from 32.8%, and Applied Global Services to 29.2% from 26.6%. Note that segment figures are presented on a recast basis — the 200mm equipment business moved from AGS to Semiconductor Systems effective Q1 FY2026, and corporate support costs are now fully allocated to segments.

2-2. Cost structure

The margin gain was driven as much by discipline as by volume. Research, development and engineering rose 15.0% to $1,027 million, outpacing revenue and holding at 13.0% of sales — Applied continues to spend ahead of demand, and under US GAAP all of it is expensed rather than capitalized, which depresses reported operating margin relative to IFRS-reporting peers that may capitalize development costs. Selling, general and administrative expense, by contrast, fell 6.1% to $397 million, dropping to 5.0% of revenue from 6.0%. That is where the incremental margin came from.

Share-based compensation was $169 million for the quarter, 2.1% of revenue — restrained by semiconductor-industry standards. Unrecognized compensation expense stands at $1.3 billion over a weighted average 2.8 years.


3. Consolidated Cash Flows

Item (six months)FY2025 ($M)FY2026 ($M)Change
Cash from operating activities2,4962,531+1.4%
Cash used in investing activities(676)(1,739)
Cash used in financing activities(3,689)(1,745)
Capital expenditures8911,281+43.8%
Free cash flow (OCF − capex)1,6051,250−22.1%

This is the section that undercuts the headline. Operating cash flow was essentially flat at $2,531 million while reported net income rose 45.5% — the divergence being exactly what one expects when $1,140 million of six-month profit consists of non-cash equity investment gains.

The quality-of-earnings ratio makes the trend unmistakable. Operating cash flow to net income was 1.27x in FY2023, 1.21x in FY2024, 1.14x in FY2025, and just 0.52x in the first half of FY2026. Even stripping out the equity gains entirely, the adjusted ratio is roughly 0.69x. A sustained reading below 1.0 warrants attention, though here the driver is identifiable and largely non-recurring in character rather than evidence of revenue-recognition stress.

Capital expenditure of $1,281 million, or 8.6% of revenue against 6.2% a year earlier, is growth capex rather than maintenance — and notably $1,061 million of it sat in the "Other" category rather than in either reportable segment, pointing to corporate-level R&D infrastructure rather than production capacity for current tools.

Capital returns were sharply throttled. Buybacks fell to $737 million for six months from $2,999 million, with just 2 million shares repurchased versus 19 million. The average price paid was $302.69 against $158.47 a year earlier — management bought far less as the shares roughly doubled, a defensible if unglamorous discipline. Dividends rose to $730 million from $651 million, with the quarterly rate lifted to $0.53 from $0.46. Combined returns of $1,467 million still exceeded free cash flow of $1,250 million, at 117% of FCF, down from an unsustainable 227% a year earlier. Approximately $13.2 billion remains authorized.


4. What Else Matters

Korea is lagging the cycle. Korea revenue was $1,572 million in the quarter, up just 1% year over year, and down 6% to $3,030 million for the six months. Korea's share of total revenue slipped to 20% from 22% in the quarter and from 23% for the half. Taiwan, meanwhile, grew 22% over six months to $3,877 million, and China remained the largest single market at $2,087 million, up 18%. The read-through is that leading-edge foundry capacity — TSMC's advanced node ramp — is absorbing tool spending faster than Korean memory capex is recovering. For investors tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix equipment orders, this is a directly relevant datapoint.

DRAM up, NAND collapsing. Within Semiconductor Systems, DRAM rose to 29% of segment revenue from 27% in the quarter and to 31% from 27% for the half, while NAND fell to 4% from 7%. Applying those disclosed percentages to segment revenue implies roughly $1.73 billion of quarterly DRAM sales versus $1.46 billion a year ago, against NAND of approximately $239 million versus $378 million. Management attributes memory strength to "increased customer investments in DRAM technology transitions" — the HBM and advanced-node DRAM build-out — while NAND spending remains depressed. Korean memory makers are heavily exposed to both sides of that split.

The BIS settlement carries a three-year tail. On February 11, 2026 Applied settled a Bureau of Industry and Security inquiry into certain China customer shipments and export controls compliance for $253 million, paid in full during the quarter. The cash cost is behind it, but the agreement includes a suspended denial order that will only be waived three years after issuance, conditional on Applied completing mandated internal export-compliance audits on time. That is a live contingency, not a closed matter — and it sits against a China business generating 27% of revenue under a US export-control regime the filing describes as continuing to issue new licensing requirements.

Services is the quiet outperformer. AGS grew 17.3% in the quarter to $1,665 million and 16% over six months, outpacing Semiconductor Systems' 10.4% and 1% respectively. Management is shifting AGS toward subscription agreements, and the segment's operating margin expanded 2.6 points to 29.2%. In a business where equipment revenue is inherently lumpy, a growing recurring-revenue base attached to the installed tool base is structurally valuable.

Tax is a moving target. The effective rate was 13.0% for both the quarter and the half, against 8.0% and 25.2% in the comparable prior periods. The half-year improvement stems from remeasuring deferred tax assets following new Singapore tax incentive agreements. Investors modelling forward earnings should not treat 13.0% as a stable run-rate — the filing explicitly attributes recent volatility to statute-of-limitations lapses and jurisdictional mix.


5. Key Implications and Outlook

What grew. The operating story is real and improving. A 31.9% operating margin against a five-year average of 29.4%, margin expansion in both segments, 1.43x operating leverage, and 11.4% revenue growth after a first quarter in which revenue actually declined roughly 2% year over year — this is a genuine reacceleration, led by leading-edge foundry/logic demand and DRAM technology transitions.

What is risky. Earnings quality has deteriorated visibly. A $670 million net equity investment gain — built on $673 million of gross unrealized appreciation on publicly traded holdings carried at $2,248 million, less realized losses and impairments — flatters results in a way that reverses if those positions fall. Free cash flow declined 22% while capital returns exceeded it. And the China position — 27% of revenue, a fresh $253 million settlement, and a suspended denial order running until 2029 — remains the single largest binary risk in the business.

Capital allocation. Priorities have visibly rotated. R&D up 15%, capex up 44%, buybacks down 75%, dividends up 12%. Management is redirecting cash from share repurchases into capacity and technology development while the stock trades near highs. Whether that proves prescient depends on the durability of the AI-driven equipment cycle.

Cycle position. Semiconductor capital equipment is cyclical and single-quarter readings mislead, so context matters: revenue has risen every year since the FY2019 trough of $14.6 billion, reaching $28.4 billion in FY2025, but growth decelerated to a plateau of roughly 3% annually across FY2023–FY2025 (three-year CAGR of 3.2%). First-half FY2026 revenue of $14.9 billion annualizes to roughly $30 billion. The quarter's 11.4% growth breaks that plateau. On the evidence here, Applied looks to be exiting a period of digestion rather than approaching a peak — but that judgment rests on foundry and DRAM capex holding, and it is not yet corroborated by cash flow, which remains flat.


Notes Quick Check

Segment data was recast this quarter — the 200mm equipment business moved from AGS to Semiconductor Systems and corporate costs are now fully allocated, so prior-period segment comparisons reflect restated balances. Revenue concentration is geographic rather than customer-disclosed, with Asia Pacific at 84% of sales. The $253 million BIS settlement is the only material contingency quantified in the filing; management states it does not believe other legal matters will have a material effect. Long-term senior unsecured notes total $5.3 billion principal against $13.4 billion of cash and investments. Share-based compensation of $376 million for six months carries $1.3 billion unrecognized over 2.8 years.


This analysis is based on filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Source: SEC Form 10-Q, filed May 21, 2026.

KOREAN_DRAFT_PATH=/home/ubuntu/linevest/보고서/Korean/agent_20260809_000106_APPLIED_MATERIALS_INC__DE_Q2 2026_한국어.md

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