TL;DR - SK Hynix (000660.KS / SKHY) reports Q2 2026 preliminary results Wednesday July 22 — consensus operating profit ₩60–65 trillion (+551–606% YoY); SKHY ADR expected to move at U.S. open - KB Financial (105560.KS) H1 2026 earnings call Thursday July 23, 16:00 KST — first major bank report since BoK hiked to 2.75% on July 16 - Homeplus rehabilitation appeal filed July 20 — Seoul Bankruptcy Court ruling expected this week; watch Meritz Financial Group (138040.KS) ₩1.2T total Homeplus exposure - CXMT lists on STAR Market Monday July 27 at ¥579B yuan (~$85.6B market cap); Korean DRAM peers in focus
Part A — The Week at a Glance
| Date (KST) | Event | Tickers | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 20 | Homeplus appeal filed; court ruling expected this week | 138040.KS | Court ruling timeline |
| Wed Jul 22 | SK Hynix Q2 preliminary results | 000660.KS, SKHY | OP vs. ₩60–65T consensus; HBM4 update |
| Thu Jul 23 | KB Financial H1 2026 earnings call, 16:00 KST | 105560.KS | NIM, credit costs post-BoK hike |
| Fri Jul 24 | Hana Financial H1 2026 results (TBC) | 086790.KS | NIM vs. Q1 group 1.82%; loan growth |
| Mon Jul 27 (next week) | CXMT STAR Market IPO listing | — | DRAM peers reaction |
Earnings dates based on company IR filings and analyst reports; subject to change.
Part B — Why Each Event Matters for Korea Investors
1. SK Hynix Q2 — The Week's Anchor Print (Wednesday July 22)
SK Hynix's second-quarter preliminary results are the most consequential single release this week. The sell-side consensus sits at ₩60–65 trillion in operating profit, compared to ₩9.21 trillion in Q2 2025 — a roughly +551% (at the low end) to +606% (at the ₩65T high end) year-over-year surge driven by the AI memory supercycle and surging HBM4 demand.
KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae is the most prominent bear in the range, forecasting ₩60.4T (+556% YoY, +61% QoQ), citing SK Hynix's high HBM mix relative to lower-than-expected legacy DRAM price recovery. Revenue consensus stands near ₩83.5 trillion, implying an operating margin in the 72–78% range — consistent with Q1 2026 actual results (₩37.61T OP on ₩52.58T revenue = ~71.5% OP margin), reflecting HBM's premium economics in a supply-constrained market.
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Profit | ₩9.21T | ₩60–65T |
| YoY OP Change | — | +551% to +606% |
| Q1 2026 Reference OP Margin | — | ~71.5% actual (Q1 2026) |
The HBM4 commentary is the second watch item. SK Hynix began HBM4 mass production in Q2 2026 and commands an estimated 56% of the HBM market (BofA data). Any guidance on HBM4 unit economics, customer adoption pace, or 2026 capacity allocation will move the stock as much as the headline OP number.
For SKHY ADR holders specifically: The ADR premium against KRX-listed shares compressed from 51% to 23% over two sessions last week. SK Hynix will open a one-way ADR→KRX conversion window on July 29 — one week after Q2 results. A beat toward the ₩65T high end of consensus could sustain the premium through the conversion window; a miss toward ₩60T would likely accelerate its collapse. The July 29 conference call (9:00 AM KST) carries full volume and mix detail.
2. Bank Earnings: Rate Hike Tailwinds vs. Credit Risks (Thursday–Friday)
The Bank of Korea's 25 bp rate hike to 2.75% on July 16 — its first in 3.5 years — landed one week before the big four financial groups begin reporting H1 2026 results. The timing creates a key question: how much of the NIM upside from higher rates materialises before credit costs from the Homeplus saga and elevated household debt offset the gains.
KB Financial Group (105560.KS) — Thursday July 23, 16:00 KST KB's Q1 2026 group net interest margin was 1.99%. Hana Securities projected KB's Q2 2026 net profit near ₩2 trillion. The key question for the earnings call: how much of the BoK's 25 bp hike fed into lending rates by end-June, and whether credit costs absorb the NIM gains. For context, Korean commercial banks collectively hold an estimated ₩1 trillion in Homeplus-related credit (₩900B secured); Meritz Financial Group — a non-bank lender — carries a separate ₩1.2T total Homeplus exposure.
Hana Financial Group (086790.KS) — expected Friday July 24 Hana carried the thinnest Q1 2026 group NIM (1.82%) among the Big Four. Its H1 results will be an early read on whether the rate cycle has shifted the NIM competitive order. If Hana shows stronger margin momentum, it could narrow the valuation gap with KB.
3. Homeplus Rehabilitation — Court Ruling Expected This Week
The Seoul Bankruptcy Court terminated Homeplus's rehabilitation proceedings on July 3 after the retailer failed to secure the minimum ₩200 billion in DIP financing. The court left the door open to reconsideration if the funds were raised before July 20.
On July 16, MBK Partners, Meritz Financial Group, and the Homeplus labor union agreed on a ₩200B DIP loan — with MBK Chairman Michael ByungJu Kim providing a personal joint guarantee. The appeal was filed on July 20. Three scenarios for this week:
| Scenario | Meritz Financial Group (138040.KS) Impact |
|---|---|
| Court reinstates rehabilitation | ₩1.2T total Homeplus exposure moves off NPL watch |
| Court rejects appeal → liquidation | Potential write-downs; NPL ratio could rise from current 6.9% |
| Court delays ruling beyond July 25 | Uncertainty premium remains; National Assembly hearing July 27 adds political pressure |
Meritz Financial Group's securities subsidiary holds approximately ₩7.8T in equity capital (Q1 2026); Homeplus-related exposure represents roughly 15% of that buffer. A National Assembly hearing is scheduled for July 27, creating additional scrutiny regardless of the court outcome.
4. CXMT STAR Market IPO (Monday July 27) — China DRAM Calibration
China's CXMT raised approximately ¥57.9 billion yuan (~$8.55B) at IPO and lists on the STAR Market on July 27, at a market capitalisation of roughly ¥579B yuan (~$85.6B). This is the largest A-share semiconductor IPO on record, surpassing SMIC's 2020 listing.
CXMT is not an immediate threat to HBM leadership. Q1 2026 DRAM market share: Samsung 38.6%, SK Hynix 28.8%, Micron 22.4%, CXMT 7.6% (up from 4.7% in Q4 2025). Korean producers are already shipping HBM4; CXMT's HBM3E mass-production target is 2027 — one generation behind current Korean supply. However, the IPO proceeds fund capacity expansion that could pressure standard DDR5 pricing in 2027–2028. Watch whether the SK Hynix Q2 conference call (July 29) addresses the CXMT build-out explicitly.
Looking Ahead: Samsung Q2 Confirmation (July 30)
Samsung Electronics already released its Q2 preliminary figures on July 7 (Samsung Global Newsroom): revenue ₩171T (+129% YoY from Q2 2025's ₩74.57T), operating profit ₩89.4T (+1,810% YoY from Q2 2025's ₩4.68T). For reference, Q1 2026 group OP margin was approximately 42.8% (₩57.23T OP on ₩133.87T revenue); the Q2 guidance implies further DS Division expansion driven by HBM4 and DRAM pricing. The July 30 full-results earnings call (10:00 AM KST) provides the division breakdown — in Q1 2026, DS (semiconductor) Division carried approximately ₩53.7T of ₩57.23T total group OP. The market will watch for foundry segment profitability and explicit HBM4 customer allocation updates.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All earnings dates and consensus figures are sourced from analyst notes and company filings, and are subject to revision.
Sources: - Seoul Economic Daily — Homeplus Wins ₩200B Lifeline, to Appeal Rehabilitation Termination (July 16) - Korea Times — MBK, Meritz strike last-ditch deal to rescue Homeplus (July 16) - BigGo Finance — Homeplus's Fate Hangs on 20-Day Countdown - Odaily — Analysts lower SK Hynix Q2 earnings expectations but anticipate sustained long-term profit growth - StockTitan — KB Financial sets 2026 H1 earnings conference date (July 23) - Samsung Global Newsroom — Samsung Electronics Announces Earnings Guidance for Second Quarter 2026 - KED Global — Korea's Q2 earnings season shaping up as key test for chip rally
