Mosaic sells phosphate and potash fertilizers that help farmers grow crops. In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, higher selling prices could not cover rising production costs and lower shipments: the company reported a $35.5 million operating loss, compared with a $244.4 million operating profit a year earlier. Mosaic has reduced phosphate output and planned investment while raising new funding. Its profitable potash business provides support, but restoring phosphate profitability requires better access to affordable raw materials.
Analysis period: second quarter and first half of 2026. Research cutoff: October 15, 2026, New York time. Operating forecasts below are dated August 4–5; subsequent financing disclosures are identified separately.
Source: Mosaic second-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q, consolidated earnings statement, p. 1; management discussion, pp. 29–31.
1. Higher phosphate prices left less money after production costs
Mosaic's main earnings problem was the widening gap between input costs and what customers would pay. Revenue fell 6.0% in the quarter, but gross profit—the amount left after producing and delivering products—fell much faster. It dropped from 17.3 cents per dollar of sales to 7.6 cents.
The first-half comparison shows that lower quarterly revenue was only part of the problem. Sales over those six months increased 3.5%, yet gross profit more than halved. Selling more dollars of fertilizer did not mean keeping more of those dollars.
| Consolidated results, US$ million except percentages and per-share amounts | Second quarter 2025 | Second quarter 2026 | First half 2025 | First half 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,005.7 | 2,824.1 | 5,626.6 | 5,822.1 |
| Gross profit | 518.6 | 214.7 | 1,007.0 | 450.3 |
| Gross profit as a share of revenue, calculated | 17.3% | 7.6% | 17.9% | 7.7% |
| Operating profit / loss | 244.4 | -35.5 | 582.9 | -408.4 |
| Net profit / loss attributable to Mosaic | 410.7 | -272.8 | 648.8 | -530.4 |
| Diluted earnings / loss per share, US$ | 1.29 | -0.86 | 2.04 | -1.67 |
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, p. 1. Percentages are calculated from the reported amounts; quarters and six-month periods are compared separately.
Phosphate production requires sulfur and ammonia as well as phosphate rock. Mosaic attributed higher input prices and shortages to disrupted fertilizer and raw-material exports amid conflict in the Middle East and attacks on industrial assets in Russia and Ukraine. These disruptions also raised fertilizer selling prices, but the two sides of the business did not rise together.
For Mosaic's Phosphate segment, the average finished-product selling price increased 13%. The sulfur consumed in its North American operations cost about two and a half times as much as a year earlier. Ammonia and phosphate rock also became more expensive.
| Phosphate operating measure | Second quarter 2025 | Second quarter 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Average finished-product selling price, US$ per metric tonne | 665 | 754 |
| North American consumed sulfur cost, US$ per long ton | 209 | 522 |
| North American consumed ammonia cost, US$ per metric tonne | 445 | 621 |
| North American processed-phosphate output as a share of operating capacity | 61% | 58% |
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Phosphate discussion and operating table, pp. 32–33. Consumed raw-material costs include transportation, transformation and storage. A long ton and a metric tonne are different units; these rows are not an ingredient-cost formula.
Management estimated that higher raw-material costs reduced quarterly Phosphate gross profit by approximately $290 million, while higher selling prices added approximately $165 million. Lower sales volumes added pressure. Lower shutdown and maintenance costs provided some relief, but segment gross profit still became a $4.5 million loss, compared with a $103.0 million profit a year earlier.
This explains the production cuts. Making additional fertilizer is less useful when its selling price does not adequately cover its inputs. However, cutting output also leaves fewer tonnes over which to spread plant costs. Mosaic must improve the money earned per tonne while controlling the costs of plants that remain partly idle.
Costs outside the factories supplied some relief: selling and administrative expense fell from $167.2 million to $131.6 million. The prior-year quarter included approximately $33 million of expense for customer bills in Brazil that Mosaic expected not to collect. Management also reported cost cuts, partly offset by inflation. The improvement helped, but was much smaller than the production-profit decline.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, pp. 30, 32–33 and 39. Management's approximate cost and price effects are explanatory estimates, not a complete arithmetic reconciliation.
2. Potash held up, while Brazil lost both production and sales
Potash remained profitable enough to absorb much of the phosphate weakness, but it could not cover the entire group. The segment earned $195.5 million from operations in the quarter, slightly more than a year earlier. Brazil's Mosaic Fertilizantes business, by contrast, moved from profit to loss.
The table separates sales to outside customers from sales between Mosaic businesses. This matters because the Phosphate segment supplies other parts of Mosaic; adding its headline segment revenue to Brazil's revenue would count some fertilizer twice.
| Second-quarter segment results, US$ million | External revenue 2025 | External revenue 2026 | Operating profit / loss 2025 | Operating profit / loss 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate | 984.6 | 968.7 | -7.9 | -103.8 |
| Potash | 711.7 | 639.7 | 194.1 | 195.5 |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | 1,174.9 | 1,033.8 | 109.0 | -40.8 |
| Corporate, Eliminations and Other | 134.5 | 181.9 | -50.8 | -86.4 |
| Consolidated total | 3,005.7 | 2,824.1 | 244.4 | -35.5 |
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 17, pp. 24–25. Operating results include the company's corporate allocations and eliminations; they are not stand-alone subsidiary profits.
Potash shipments fell from approximately 2.3 million to 2.0 million tonnes. Mosaic had less product available because of downtime at Esterhazy in Canada and the April sale of its Carlsbad mine. Higher selling prices, lower turnaround costs and other operating-cost savings helped offset the smaller volume. Canadian resource taxes increased, absorbing part of that benefit.
The distinction between demand and Mosaic's production matters. Competitor Nutrien reported first-half potash sales of 7.453 million tonnes, compared with 7.391 million a year earlier, while Mosaic's first-half potash volume fell 6%. Nutrien attributed its increase to low inventories and favorable affordability in important overseas markets. That supports the conclusion that Mosaic's lower potash sales partly reflected its own production constraints. The comparison uses physical volumes, avoiding differences between the companies' accounting rules and cost measures.
Sources: Mosaic 2026 Form 10-Q, pp. 34–35; Nutrien second-quarter results, August 5, 2026, Potash segment, manufactured-product table and commentary.
Brazil faced a harder combination. Its finished-product selling price rose 23.4%, but sales volume fell 32%. Mosaic cited restricted raw-material supply, production cuts and limited customer credit. A farmer or distributor may need fertilizer but still be unable to finance a purchase at the prevailing price.
The Brazilian business also buys fertilizer for resale, so rising market prices increased its purchasing costs as well as its own manufacturing costs. Management estimated quarterly pressure of approximately $110 million from higher distribution-product costs and $100 million from higher manufacturing raw-material costs. Higher selling prices supplied approximately $170 million of relief. Reduced volumes, idle-plant expenses and accelerated depreciation added further costs.
Brazilian phosphate production fell 44.7%, and its operating rate declined from 84% to 47%. Its $6.2 million gross profit left little to cover selling and administrative expenses. The practical task is therefore broader than restarting factories: Mosaic needs profitable production, customer financing and sufficient sales to move the resulting inventory.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, pp. 30 and 36–37.
3. Exiting weaker assets has an immediate cost and a longer-term purpose
Mosaic is reducing commitments to weaker operations, but the exits themselves consume resources. Management said selling Carlsbad would focus the potash business on Canada. It said disposing of the Araxá complex in Brazil would redirect capital and resources toward better opportunities in phosphate.
Carlsbad closed on April 30. Although the agreement described a $20 million initial price plus $10 million of deferred consideration, closing adjustments left Mosaic with approximately $2 million of immediate cash proceeds and the $10 million deferred payment. That makes the transaction more significant as a change in operating obligations than as an immediate source of cash.
The buyer obtained bonds supporting its cleanup obligations. Mosaic agreed to cover up to $50 million for the bond provider, but only after the buyer's pledged collateral has been used. That support is designed to decline over three years, leaving Mosaic with some exposure after the sale.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 18, p. 27.
Araxá was classified for sale in March. Mosaic reduced its recorded asset value by $232.6 million, leaving $96.6 million of assets held for sale against $76.6 million of associated liabilities at June 30. The remaining asset value is an accounting estimate based partly on indicative buyer pricing, not cash already collected.
At the related Patrocínio operation, the decision to idle mining produced approximately $159 million of first-quarter charges. These included contract termination, unusable equipment and other assets, and employee costs. Mosaic also shortened the remaining useful lives of equipment, charging its cost against earnings faster. This accelerated depreciation added approximately $52 million in the first half, while care and maintenance added approximately $37 million. Together with the Araxá write-down, these items explain the approximately $482 million first-half exit-related expense discussed by management; they should not be added to that total again.
Some charges reduce accounting profit without an immediate payment. Contract termination and severance obligations are different: Mosaic expected their cash settlement by the end of 2026. Care and maintenance was expected to continue until the Araxá sale. The intended operating savings consequently arrive alongside a period of exit payments and upkeep.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 18, pp. 27–28; management discussion, p. 31.
These decisions follow earlier evidence of Brazilian weakness. In 2025, Mosaic wrote off all $96.3 million of Mosaic Fertilizantes goodwill—the remaining acquisition premium assigned to that business—after reducing its long-term forecast. The 2026 closures therefore address both the current raw-material shock and an operation whose expected performance had already weakened.
Investment continues elsewhere. Mosaic's August outlook included additional Esterhazy potash volumes from its Hydrofloat project, while reducing company-wide 2026 capital spending to $1.2 billion. The annual report had initially expected approximately $1.5 billion. This is a meaningful reduction in cash needs, but the disclosed totals do not divide every dollar between maintaining existing plants and expanding production.
Sources: Mosaic 2025 Form 10-K, Note 10, p. F-52, and liquidity discussion, pp. F-15–F-16; August 4, 2026 earnings release, Capital Allocation Update and Potash Results and Outlook, pp. 2–3.
4. Investment losses enlarged the headline loss, but do not explain it away
The reported loss combines weaker fertilizer operations with substantial changes in investment values. Mosaic recorded approximately $161.6 million of quarterly losses as the market value of its Ma'aden shares fell. Those shares came from exchanging its Saudi phosphate joint-venture interest in December 2024. Their market value changes run through profit, even when Mosaic does not sell them.
The position was worth $1,755.1 million at June 30, compared with $1,804.2 million at December 31. Transfer and sale restrictions are released over five years, so this investment should not be counted as freely available cash. The company also recorded a $39.4 million quarterly foreign-currency transaction loss, compared with a $169.4 million gain a year earlier.
These items explain why net earnings deteriorated much more than operating earnings. They do not reverse the decline in the money earned from making and selling fertilizer. A separate $69 million write-off of engineering and equipment for an abandoned project also reduced Phosphate operating profit. The comparison also lost a prior-year benefit: approximately $50 million of unrealized derivative gains had reduced production costs in the 2025 quarter, with no comparable gain in 2026.
Sources: 2026 Form 10-Q, p. 1, Note 13, pp. 19–20, and management discussion, pp. 30 and 38; 2025 Form 10-K, Note 9, p. F-51.
Management's adjusted earnings remove selected gains and costs. That calculation changes the quarter from a loss to a small profit per share, but still shows a sharp deterioration from the comparable quarter. It also removes idle-facility costs that can continue while operations remain closed, so the adjusted result is not a promise of repeatable profit.
| Company's second-quarter adjusted-earnings reconciliation | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reported diluted earnings / loss per share, US$ | 1.29 | -0.86 |
| Selected items' pretax effect on earnings, US$ million | 339 | -351 |
| Related tax effect, including tax-specific adjustments, US$ million | -90 | 36 |
| Selected items' after-tax effect, US$ million, calculated from rounded totals | 249 | -315 |
| Per-share adjustment to remove selected items, US$ | -0.78 | 0.99 |
| Adjusted diluted earnings per share, US$, non-GAAP | 0.51 | 0.13 |
Source: August 4 earnings release, notable-item schedules, p. 9, and EPS reconciliation, p. 13. Dollar totals are rounded company disclosures; the per-share bridge uses the company's published EPS adjustments. The selected items and their scope are detailed in the calculation notes.
Taxes provided only partial relief. Mosaic recognized a $33.8 million tax benefit against a $300.9 million loss from consolidated companies before tax. It used a method that calculates tax on the year-to-date results because it could not reliably estimate the full-year tax rate. Differences between countries' tax treatment, limits on the tax benefits it could recognize in Brazil, and other items limited the benefit. The reported 11.2% quarterly rate should therefore not be used as a stable rate for future earnings.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 11, pp. 17–18.
5. Operating cash did not cover investment and dividends
Mosaic needed external funding even though its operations still brought in cash. First-half operating cash flow fell 58.4%, while capital spending increased. After investment and paid dividends, the company had a $546.2 million cash shortfall on this defined basis.
| Consolidated cash allocation, US$ million | First half 2025 | First half 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by operations | 652.4 | 271.6 |
| Capital expenditure paid | 645.4 | 677.1 |
| Operating cash less capital expenditure, calculated free cash flow | 7.0 | -405.5 |
| Cash dividends paid to Mosaic shareholders | 141.0 | 140.7 |
| Cash remaining after capital expenditure and those dividends, calculated | -134.0 | -546.2 |
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, cash-flow statement, p. 4. Free cash flow here subtracts the statement's cash capital expenditure from operating cash flow. It excludes asset-sale proceeds and financing; the last row also excludes dividends to minority owners.
Mosaic could report a loss while generating operating cash because the loss included depreciation, write-downs and other items that did not require an immediate payment. After the statement's adjustments, first-half earnings contributed $559.3 million before changes in operating assets and liabilities. Those changes then used $287.7 million, leaving the reported $271.6 million of operating cash.
Inventory was a major use of money. Finished goods on the balance sheet increased from $1,587.6 million to $1,940.9 million. Management attributed the cash tied up in inventories to higher finished-product volumes, mainly in Brazil for seasonal needs, and more expensive raw materials. This stock must be sold and paid for before it becomes available cash.
Customers' unpaid balances fell, providing $222.3 million of cash-flow relief. Management linked that decline primarily to lower sales volumes at the end of June than at the end of December. It is therefore not evidence by itself that customers became faster payers. Mosaic also sold $288.1 million of receivables to banks during the first half, versus $251.2 million a year earlier; the proceeds are included in operating cash. These sales bring collections forward, and their gross volume is not an incremental profit measure.
Sources: 2026 Form 10-Q, pp. 3–4; Note 6, p. 10; Note 9, p. 14; operating-cash discussion, p. 41.
Payment timing also became less supportive. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities used $90.4 million of cash, compared with a $273.5 million source a year earlier. Mosaic cited lower inventory purchases and payment timing. Customer prepayments—money received before supplying fertilizer—fell from $297.3 million to $240.9 million between December and June. That reduced one source of customer funding already contained within the broader liability movements; it should not be subtracted again.
This pressure did not begin in the second quarter. Full-year operating cash flow had fallen from $1,299.2 million in 2024 to $824.8 million in 2025. In 2025, inventory used $761.5 million of cash amid higher raw-material prices and slow fourth-quarter demand. Releasing inventory is thus a credible route to better cash flow, but it requires sales and collections from stock already built up.
Sources: 2026 Form 10-Q, p. 4, Note 4, p. 9, and p. 41; 2025 Form 10-K, cash-flow discussion, pp. F-16–F-17.
6. Borrowing supported cash, and later refinancing moved repayments outward
Mosaic gained funding flexibility, while increasing the obligations that future operations must support. At June 30, financing debt was $5,855.7 million, up $801.8 million from December. This includes finance leases and inventory financing, but excludes ordinary supplier bills and separately reported structured payables.
| Consolidated financial position, US$ million | December 31, 2025 | June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents available for general use | 276.6 | 294.0 |
| Short-term debt | 759.9 | 1,021.3 |
| Long-term debt, including amounts due within one year | 4,294.0 | 4,834.4 |
| Structured accounts payable arrangements | 480.1 | 353.1 |
| Total equity, including minority owners | 12,234.2 | 11,634.9 |
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, p. 3 and Note 9, pp. 13–15. Financing debt is calculated as short-term debt plus all long-term debt.
The short-term balance included $502.0 million borrowed against inventory that Mosaic must repurchase within 180 days, plus $519.2 million of commercial paper. The commercial paper's remaining average term was just 14 days, at a weighted average interest rate of 4.07%. Those short maturities create a repeated need to renew funding.
The structured payables also function as financing: intermediaries pay suppliers, and Mosaic pays the intermediaries 119–180 days after shipment. Their decline used cash. Separating them from ordinary accounts payable makes the funding dependence clearer.
Mosaic had approximately $2.0 billion of remaining availability under its commercial-paper program, backed by its $2.5 billion revolving facility, and approximately $0.6 billion under uncommitted facilities. The commercial-paper program and revolver are overlapping sources, not two independent pools to add together. Uncommitted facilities also do not provide the same assurance as committed lending.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 9, pp. 13–15; liquidity discussion, pp. 40–41.
To extend funding, Mosaic drew $500 million in June under a loan due June 2029. It drew a further $500 million on July 14 under a tranche due June 2027. Both carry variable rates tied to a benchmark plus a credit-dependent margin. The July draw is a subsequent event, not part of June's debt or cash balance.
A larger change followed on August 17: Mosaic completed a $2 billion bond issue. The company expected net proceeds of approximately $1,983.3 million after underwriting discounts and estimated expenses. The new bonds extend repayment dates but carry a calculated $111.25 million of annual coupon interest before fees.
| Bonds issued August 17, 2026 | Principal, US$ million | Annual coupon rate | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senior notes | 1,000 | 5.350% | 2031 |
| Senior notes | 500 | 5.650% | 2034 |
| Senior notes | 500 | 5.900% | 2036 |
Sources: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 9, p. 15; August 17 financing Form 8-K, Items 2.03 and 8.01.
Mosaic accepted approximately $871.0 million of older bonds for purchase in its tender offers, with settlement scheduled for August 18. On August 28, it announced redemption of another $537.2 million of remaining 2027 and 2028 notes and debentures, scheduled for September 28. These actions were designed to remove nearer-term bond maturities. The reviewed documents establish the accepted tenders and redemption notices; they do not supply a later consolidated debt balance or final confirmation of the September redemption payment.
The new issue's full coupon bill is not the increase in total company interest expense, because some older interest obligations are being replaced. Nevertheless, refinancing does not solve the cash shortfall after investment and dividends. It gives Mosaic more time to improve the business and meet its obligations. The July loan also introduced a June 2027 maturity; the reviewed financing notices do not establish whether that loan was subsequently repaid.
Sources: Company final tender results, August 17, accepted-principal table and settlement terms, pp. 1–2; August 28 redemption Form 8-K, Item 2.04.
Mosaic reported that it met its lending conditions at June 30. The contracts limit a defined debt measure to 65% of a defined measure of total capital and require a defined earnings measure to cover interest at least three times. These tests use contract definitions rather than the quarter's reported operating profit. Mosaic did not disclose its actual ratios, so the filing does not show how much room remained under the limits.
Net interest expense had already risen to $118.1 million for the first half from $93.7 million. Operating lease obligations added $223.4 million at June 30, including $69.8 million classified as current. Separately, equity—the recorded assets left after subtracting liabilities—fell $599.3 million, mainly because of the loss and dividends. Mosaic retained a substantial equity base, but more of its funding now depends on creditors while its earnings base is weaker.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, pp. 1, 3 and 6; Notes 4 and 9. Detailed balance-sheet and equity checks appear below.
7. A phosphate recovery depends on costs, supply and customer affordability
The verified operating outlook still pointed to pressure extending beyond June. In its August 4 update, Mosaic said Faustina had been fully idled and Bartow was operating at 40% of its targeted annual rate. Third-quarter phosphate sales were forecast at 1.1–1.4 million tonnes, compared with approximately 1.4 million actually sold in the second quarter.
Mosaic settled third-quarter sulfur contracts with U.S. Gulf Coast refiners at $705 per long ton and expected those contracts to affect results mainly in the fourth quarter. This is a new contract price, not a forecast of the average cost of all sulfur consumed. The timing still matters: material purchased at a high price can affect profit later, when it is used and the fertilizer is sold.
The company forecast third-quarter DAP fertilizer prices of $820–$840 per tonne at the plant. Higher fertilizer prices could help, but Mosaic also needs enough affordable raw material to operate and customers able to purchase the output. Management's actions preserve the ability to restart production; the disclosed outlook does not establish that a profitable restart had occurred.
Source: August 4 earnings release, Phosphate Results and Outlook, p. 4. DAP is one phosphate fertilizer; its plant price is different from the segment's average finished-product selling price.
Competition and trade policy also affect what Mosaic can charge. On June 29, a presidential proclamation authorized temporary relief from specified duties and deposits on Moroccan phosphate imports for eight months or until the emergency ended, whichever came first. Easier access to imported product could help customers obtain fertilizer while increasing competition for domestic suppliers. The proclamation establishes the policy change, not the size of an eventual price effect.
Mosaic's own product mix offers limited evidence of an offset. Sales of performance products, including MicroEssentials, K-Mag and Aspire, fell from $695.2 million to $591.1 million in the quarter. These products give Mosaic ways to compete beyond basic fertilizer, but their falling revenue provided no sales offset to the broader downturn. The filing does not disclose their separate profit contribution.
Sources: June 29 presidential proclamation, operative paragraphs 1–3; 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 17, p. 26, and legal proceedings, p. 49; 2025 Form 10-K, Item 1, Competition.
8. Cleanup duties and disputes remain claims on future cash
Reducing production does not remove Mosaic's obligations to restore mining sites and manage waste. At June 30, recorded asset-retirement obligations totaled $2,515.1 million, including $227.2 million classified as current. These obligations include mine reclamation and the closure and long-term care of phosphogypsum stacks, which hold a by-product of phosphate production.
The balance declined from $2,601.9 million at December, but this was not simply a reduction in estimated cleanup costs. Settlements and moving liabilities into the Araxá sale group reduced the balance, while the passage of time and other changes increased it. Mosaic paid for ongoing retirement work even as fertilizer earnings weakened.
Mosaic held $768.4 million of marketable securities in restricted trusts. These support specified closure obligations and are unavailable for general spending. They should not be added to the company's $294.0 million cash balance when judging its ability to pay suppliers or dividends.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 4, p. 9; Note 8, pp. 11–13; Note 10, pp. 15–17.
Other environmental reserves totaled $150.7 million. Within that amount, $45.7 million covered estimated New Wales stack repairs. Mosaic could not estimate additional potential financial impacts or a range of loss for that matter. The recorded reserve therefore provides a known estimate, not a ceiling on eventual cost.
Brazil adds a separate set of uncertainties. Labor, environmental, mining and civil claims alleged approximately $536.7 million of damages or fines, against $75.6 million accrued for probable losses. Non-income-tax disputes carried a disclosed maximum potential liability of $815.6 million, including $198.9 million subject to a Vale indemnification agreement; probable-loss reserves for those tax disputes were immaterial. These maximum exposures are not expected payments, and indemnification depends on the contractual protection being realized.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 16, pp. 22–24.
The tax balance also includes a potential benefit that should not be treated as funding already secured. Approximately $1.4 billion of unrecognized tax benefits primarily relates to a possible U.S. tax loss associated with the Taquari divestiture. The IRS had begun reviewing it under its pre-filing agreement program. Recognition could materially affect tax assets and earnings, but the filing did not establish approval or cash receipt.
Mosaic and other fertilizer producers also faced antitrust class actions consolidated in June, seeking remedies that include damages of three times the legally established loss. Mosaic disputed the allegations; the filing did not quantify a loss estimate. These cases and the environmental obligations leave potential cash demands outside the immediate fertilizer-production decision.
Source: 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 11, p. 17, and Note 16, p. 23.
9. Mosaic has bought time, but recovery must come from operating cash
Mosaic's financing and production cuts create room to respond; they do not yet establish a profitable phosphate recovery. Potash remains a useful source of earnings, and exiting weaker assets can reduce future operating demands. The immediate obstacle is that phosphate inputs became expensive enough to erode the benefit of higher fertilizer prices, while Brazil also faced weak volumes and customer credit constraints.
The business assessment would improve if Mosaic can secure raw materials at costs that leave a workable margin, restore output without rebuilding excess inventory, and collect enough cash to cover investment and existing obligations. Lower capital spending helps that process. If those operating improvements lag, the company will continue relying on borrowing and asset actions to meet cash needs, with interest and cleanup payments competing for the same money.
Sources: 2026 Form 10-Q, management discussion, pp. 29–42; August 17 financing Form 8-K, Item 8.01. The conclusion is an interpretation of the operating and funding evidence described above.
Reporting basis and calculation notes
Reporting basis: The selected filing is The Mosaic Company, CIK 0001285785, Form 10-Q, accession 0001285785-26-000112, filed August 5, 2026, for June 30, 2026. Mosaic's fiscal year ends December 31. The analysis uses unaudited consolidated U.S. GAAP accounts, including controlled subsidiaries and the consolidated 75%-owned Miski Mayo mine. Net earnings attributable to Mosaic exclude minority owners' share; the cash-flow statement starts with the loss including those owners.
The quarter means April 1–June 30; the first half means January 1–June 30. Balance-sheet comparisons use December 31, 2025 and June 30, 2026. The research cutoff is October 15, 2026. The operational outlook used here remains the August 4–5 disclosure, while the financing discussion incorporates the August 17 and August 28 documents. It does not imply that every operating condition was independently remeasured at the cutoff.
Sources: SEC filing index; 10-Q, Notes 1–2, p. 7. Selected financial totals were cross-checked against SEC company facts, using this accession, U.S.-dollar units, consolidated facts and the actual start/end dates. The filing's fiscal-period label alone does not distinguish its quarter from its six-month facts.
Calculation notes: Profit comparisons. Revenue growth equals current revenue divided by comparable prior revenue, minus one. Quarterly growth is 2,824.1 / 3,005.7 − 1 = -6.0%; first-half growth is 5,822.1 / 5,626.6 − 1 = 3.5%. Gross-profit percentages divide gross profit by revenue. Quarterly operating margins were -1.3% in 2026 and 8.1% in 2025. Rounded segment operating results reconcile exactly at the displayed precision: -103.8 + 195.5 − 40.8 − 86.4 = -35.5, all in US$ million.
Source: 10-Q, p. 1 and Note 17, pp. 24–25.
Calculation notes: Adjusted earnings. This table shows the company's selected items before tax, with gains positive and costs negative. A dash means no separate item was listed for that period. All amounts are rounded US$ million.
| Selected effect on second-quarter earnings | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Ma'aden share-value changes | 216 | -162 |
| Currency effects | 169 | -49 |
| Unrealized derivative gains | 51 | — |
| Closed or idled facility costs | -14 | -28 |
| Retirement-obligation adjustment | -44 | — |
| Environmental reserve | -32 | — |
| Trust-security losses | -7 | -1 |
| Disposal and transaction costs | — | -9 |
| Accelerated depreciation | — | -26 |
| Land reclamation | — | -7 |
| Abandoned-project write-off | — | -69 |
| Total pretax effect | 339 | -351 |
The tax effects in the main reconciliation include tax-specific adjustments; the 2026 net benefit of $36 million includes a separate $31 million adverse tax adjustment. These are management's selected amounts, not necessarily whole statement captions. Its $49 million currency adjustment differs from the reported $39.4 million currency-loss line. The EPS bridge follows the company's published adjustment schedule.
Source: Earnings release, pp. 9 and 13. Adjusted earnings retain costs not selected for removal.
Calculation notes: From loss to operating cash. The following checks the six months ended June 30, 2026. Every amount is in US$ million. The adjustments remove accounting items and payment-timing differences to arrive at actual operating cash flow.
| Reconciliation item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Net loss including minority owners | -520.0 |
| Depreciation, depletion and amortization | 608.7 |
| Impairment of assets held for sale | 238.8 |
| Deferred and other income-tax adjustment | -139.1 |
| Currency, equity-security and derivative adjustments, combined | 127.6 |
| Other earnings-to-cash adjustments, combined | 243.3 |
| Earnings after these adjustments, before operating-balance changes | 559.3 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | -287.7 |
| Operating cash flow | 271.6 |
The $127.6 million adjustment combines currency effects of $79.5 million and equity-security losses of $49.2 million, less derivative gains of $1.1 million. The $243.3 million of other adjustments includes retirement accruals, share compensation, financing-fee amortization and the statement's remaining adjustments. These entries reconcile accounting profit to cash; they are not separate receipts.
Changes in amounts owed by customers, inventory and operating obligations had the following cash effects. All amounts are US$ million for the first half of 2026.
| Operating-balance change | Cash effect |
|---|---|
| Receivables decreased | 222.3 |
| Inventory increased | -245.6 |
| Other current and noncurrent assets | -92.9 |
| Accounts payable and accrued liabilities | -90.4 |
| Retirement obligations | -98.1 |
| Other noncurrent liabilities | 17.0 |
| Total | -287.7 |
These cash-flow changes can differ from balance-sheet movements because of currency translation, reclassifications and noncash transactions.
The opening and closing cash check includes restricted cash, in US$ million:
| Cash reconciliation, first half of 2026 | Amount |
|---|---|
| Opening cash, equivalents and restricted cash | 298.6 |
| Operating cash inflow | 271.6 |
| Investing cash outflow | -667.1 |
| Financing cash inflow | 410.5 |
| Exchange-rate effect | -7.8 |
| Closing cash, equivalents and restricted cash | 305.8 |
The closing total includes $11.8 million of restricted cash, leaving $294.0 million of cash and equivalents available for general use. Restricted marketable trust securities are a separate asset.
Financing supplied $410.5 million after payments. Its main sources and uses reconcile as follows, in US$ million:
| Financing activity, first half of 2026 | Cash effect |
|---|---|
| Net long-term borrowing | 442.8 |
| Net inventory financing | 201.8 |
| Net other short-term borrowing | 60.3 |
| Net repayments of structured payables | -134.9 |
| Shareholder dividends paid | -140.7 |
| Other financing, including minority-owner flows | -18.8 |
| Total financing cash flow | 410.5 |
The final category combines $8.5 million of minority-owner cash contributions, less $7.1 million of their dividends and $20.2 million of other financing outflows.
Source: 10-Q, cash-flow statements, pp. 4–5, and liquidity discussion, pp. 41–42.
Calculation notes: What changed in the asset base. All amounts below are consolidated US$ million. The table distinguishes the accounting value of assets from immediately spendable cash.
| Asset | December 31, 2025 | June 30, 2026 | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables, net | 1,078.6 | 860.1 | Lower end-period sales helped reduce unpaid balances; bank purchases also brought collections forward. |
| Inventories | 3,363.0 | 3,668.0 | Finished goods increased; seasonal stocks and more expensive inputs tied up money. |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 13,982.6 | 13,617.1 | Depreciation, asset write-offs and moving Araxá assets into the sale category reduced book values despite new investment. |
| Goodwill | 1,005.1 | 969.2 | The $35.9 million decrease was currency translation, not a new impairment charge. |
| Deferred-tax assets | 811.6 | 1,205.6 | These represent future tax benefits and are not current cash. |
| Deferred-tax liabilities | 1,000.8 | 1,194.7 | These represent future tax obligations; both sides must be considered together. |
Subtracting deferred-tax liabilities from deferred-tax assets gives a $10.9 million net asset at June, compared with a $189.2 million net liability at December—a $200.1 million movement. The interim filing does not explain every part of that movement. It establishes a change in future tax balances, rather than cash received or an approved refund.
Sources: 10-Q, p. 3; Notes 6–7, pp. 10–11; Note 11, pp. 17–18; Note 18, pp. 27–28. Property movements listed above explain major influences, rather than forming a complete numerical property roll-forward.
Calculation notes: Equity and share counts. Losses and dividend entries reduced retained earnings—the accumulated profits left in the business. Share compensation increased paid-in capital, while restricted-share vesting reduced it. Currency translation and smaller pension and trust-security changes increased the loss recorded outside net earnings.
| Mosaic shareholders' equity component, US$ million | December 31, 2025 | First-half movement | June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common stock | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Paid-in capital above par value | 29.2 | 13.7 | 42.9 |
| Retained earnings | 14,184.4 | -599.9 | 13,584.5 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -2,131.9 | -34.8 | -2,166.7 |
| Total Mosaic shareholders' equity | 12,084.9 | -621.0 | 11,463.9 |
| Minority owners' equity | 149.3 | 21.7 | 171.0 |
| Total consolidated equity | 12,234.2 | -599.3 | 11,634.9 |
Retained earnings fell by the $530.4 million attributable loss plus $69.5 million of dividend entries. Paid-in capital rose by $18.1 million of share compensation less $4.4 million associated with vesting. Minority equity rose by $11.4 million of comprehensive income and $17.4 million of equity additions, less $7.1 million of dividends. The $69.5 million equity dividend entry differs from the $140.7 million paid in cash because declarations and payments fall in different periods; accrued dividends fell from $75.9 million to $4.4 million.
Outstanding shares increased from 317.409 million to 317.896 million; issued shares increased from 395.125 million to 395.563 million. Issued shares include shares no longer outstanding. The first-half equity and cash-flow statements show no share repurchases and no separate treasury-stock dollar movement.
Second-quarter basic average shares rose from 317.3 million to 317.9 million. Diluted average shares fell from 319.0 million to 317.9 million because share awards were excluded in the loss period. Including them would have made the loss per share appear smaller, which accounting rules do not permit. The EPS reversal chiefly reflects earnings, rather than a change in the share base.
Assets equal liabilities plus equity at both dates: June's $24,640.7 million = $13,005.8 million + $11,634.9 million; December's $24,480.1 million = $12,245.9 million + $12,234.2 million.
Source: 10-Q, pp. 3–6; Notes 4–5, pp. 9–10; Note 14, p. 21; Part II, Item 2, p. 51.
Calculation notes: Debt, leases and cleanup commitments. This December 31, 2025 schedule shows why moving repayments beyond 2027–2028 mattered. It predates the 2026 loans and bond transactions discussed above.
| Maturity year in the December 2025 schedule | Long-term debt, US$ million |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.1 |
| 2027 | 727.4 |
| 2028 | 575.2 |
| 2029 | 569.1 |
| 2030 | 404.3 |
| Thereafter | 1,974.9 |
| Total | 4,294.0 |
At the same December date, estimated contractual long-term interest was $1,604.0 million in total, including $220.0 million within one year. These estimates used the debt and interest rates then in place.
Operating leases required $267.9 million of future payments, including $71.9 million in 2026. The recorded liability was lower because accounting discounts payments due in later years. Finance-lease debt of $176.0 million was already included in the debt total above.
Purchase commitments totaled $8,611.9 million, including $4,887.8 million within one year, at prevailing December prices. These are agreements to buy inputs and services needed to operate. They show future purchasing needs and overlap with future production costs; adding both would double-count the same spending.
For the new August notes, annual coupons calculate as $1,000 million × 5.350% + $500 million × 5.650% + $500 million × 5.900% = $111.25 million. The amount excludes fees, partial-year timing and interest on debt being replaced.
The cleanup-obligation balance also reconciles. Payments and transfers to the sale group reduced it, while new obligations and changes in estimates increased it.
| Retirement-obligation reconciliation, first half of 2026 | US$ million |
|---|---|
| Opening balance | 2,601.9 |
| New obligations | 9.9 |
| Obligations settled | -108.0 |
| Increase as payment dates approach | 66.7 |
| Revised cost estimates | 8.4 |
| Currency translation | 0.8 |
| Transferred to held-for-sale liabilities | -64.6 |
| Closing balance | 2,515.1 |
The $108.0 million settled in this liability schedule and the cash-flow statement's $98.1 million retirement-obligation change measure different movements; they are not interchangeable.
Sources: 2025 Form 10-K, contractual obligations, pp. F-16–F-17; Note 4, p. F-47; Note 11, pp. F-54–F-55; 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 10, p. 16; August 17 Form 8-K, Item 8.01.
This analysis is for information and education. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to transact in securities.