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2026年10月2日金曜日
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J&J (JNJ) Q2 2026: Record $25.3B Sales as TREMFYA Covers 94% of STELARA's $913M Drop — Yet EPS Falls

執筆 MinJeKim

この記事の日本語訳は準備中です。以下は英語の原文です。

Johnson & Johnson has now shown, in hard dollars, that it can largely absorb the decline of what was as recently as 2024 its second-largest product by sales. TREMFYA added $860 million of quarterly sales year over year while STELARA gave up $913 million — a near dollar-for-dollar handoff within the quarter, alongside total revenue of $25,310 million, up 6.6% from $23,743 million. That is the highest quarterly sales figure J&J has reported on a post-Kenvue continuing-operations basis and its first quarter above $25 billion, surpassing the $24.6 billion of the 2025 fourth quarter (per J&J's Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases). Yet net earnings were flat at $5,534 million versus $5,537 million, because a 3.3-percentage-point jump in the effective tax rate consumed all of a 3.9% gain in pretax profit. For a company whose growth thesis rests on out-innovating its own patent cliff, the quarter answers the revenue question convincingly and raises a different one about where the earnings leverage went.

All balance sheet, income statement and cash flow figures below are taken from J&J's Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. Guidance and adjusted-EPS figures are from the Q2 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K).


1. Consolidated Balance Sheet

1-1. Principal Asset Items

ItemDec 28, 2025 ($M)Jun 28, 2026 ($M)Change %
Cash and cash equivalents19,70920,422+3.6
Accounts receivable, trade17,17819,046+10.9
Inventories14,19115,144+6.7
Property, plant and equipment, net23,16923,582+1.8
Intangible assets, net50,40348,229−4.3
Goodwill48,77248,479−0.6
Total assets199,210201,061+0.9

Total assets barely moved, but the composition shifted in a way that flatters the operating business. Receivables grew 10.9% against six-month sales growth of 8.2% — a modest but real divergence worth monitoring, though the allowance actually fell to $171 million from $183 million, suggesting management sees no deterioration in collectibility. Inventory growth of 6.7% ran below sales growth, with finished goods at $8,405 million against $7,833 million; for a company launching into a product transition, building finished goods more slowly than sales is the healthy direction.

The $2,174 million decline in net intangibles is almost entirely amortization running off rather than impairment: accumulated amortization on patents and trademarks rose to $33,727 million from $32,507 million. Purchased in-process R&D actually increased slightly to $15,721 million from $15,619 million. This is the US GAAP artifact worth flagging — internally generated R&D is expensed in full and never appears on the balance sheet, so the $48,229 million of intangibles reflects only what J&J bought, not the $5,688 million of Innovative Medicine research and development — or the $7,180 million of company-wide R&D — expensed in the first six months.

1-2. Liability Structure — Financial vs. Operating

Financial debt rose modestly overall but changed character sharply. Loans and notes payable jumped 37.6% to $11,692 million from $8,495 million, while long-term debt fell 5.3% to $37,344 million from $39,438 million. Total debt of $49,036 million is only 2.3% above the $47,933 million at year-end, and net of $20,422 million cash and $336 million marketable securities, net debt stands at $28,278 million versus $27,831 million — essentially unchanged.

The mix, however, tells the funding story. Commercial paper inside current debt grew to $9.9 billion from $6.5 billion, carrying a 3.68% weighted average rate and roughly two-month weighted average maturity, against a 3.57% weighted average effective rate on non-current debt. The $3.4 billion increase in short-dated paper coincided with a roughly $2.1 billion increase in buybacks; the filing does not link the two explicitly, but the net effect is that J&J is carrying more short-term paper at a rate slightly above its long-term cost of debt. With a AAA-rated balance sheet and $20.4 billion of cash, this is a financing convenience rather than a risk, but it does mean roughly $9.9 billion reprices within a quarter.

On the operating side, accounts payable fell to $9,223 million from $11,991 million while accrued rebates, returns and promotions rose to $19,990 million from $19,124 million. That rebate accrual — equivalent to 79% of a single quarter's revenue — is the largest operating liability on the balance sheet and reflects the gross-to-net dynamics of US pharmaceutical pricing. Confirmed supplier finance obligations were a modest $0.7 billion, down from $0.8 billion, so the payables decline is genuine cash settlement rather than program shrinkage.

1-3. Capital Structure

Total shareholders' equity rose 4.2% to $84,971 million from $81,544 million. Retained earnings and additional paid-in capital reached $171,665 million against treasury stock of $75,863 million. Accumulated other comprehensive loss narrowed meaningfully to $(13,951) million from $(14,930) million, driven by $1,538 million of favorable foreign currency translation over six months — a direct reversal of the $(3,739) million translation hit in the prior-year period, and a reminder that 42.6% of quarterly sales ($10,777 million of $25,310 million) are international.


2. Consolidated Statement of Earnings

2-1. Core Profitability, Fiscal Second Quarter

ItemQ2 2025 ($M)Q2 2026 ($M)Change %
Sales to customers23,74325,310+6.6
Gross profit16,11517,259+7.1
Gross margin (%)67.968.2—
SM&A expense5,8896,432+9.2
R&D expense3,5163,653+3.9
Earnings before taxes6,4916,747+3.9
Net earnings5,5375,534−0.1
Net margin (%)23.321.9—
Diluted EPS ($)2.292.27−0.9

Gross margin expanded 30 basis points to 68.2% and R&D fell as a share of sales to 14.4% from 14.8%, yet net margin compressed roughly 145 basis points. Two things account for the gap. Selling, marketing and administrative expense grew 9.2% — well ahead of the 6.6% revenue line — with Innovative Medicine accounting for $341 million of the $543 million increase as J&J funds the TREMFYA launch, while MedTech separately carries about $0.3 billion of Orthopaedics separation costs in the quarter. More decisively, the tax provision rose to $1,213 million from $954 million, lifting the quarterly effective rate to 18.0% from 14.7%. Pretax earnings grew 3.9%; the tax line took the entire increment.

Four years of second-quarter revenue on a continuing-operations basis, as reported in successive 10-Q filings — $21,519 million in 2023, $22,447 million in 2024, $23,743 million in 2025, $25,310 million in 2026 — work out to a 5.6% compound annual growth rate. Growth ran ahead of that trend at 6.6% this quarter despite the STELARA cliff.

The six-month comparison is where reported figures mislead badly. Net earnings of $10,769 million against $16,536 million looks like a 34.9% collapse. It is not. The prior-year period contained approximately $7.0 billion of income from reversing the talc bankruptcy reserve, booked at roughly a 22% tax rate, while the current period carries $0.8 billion of talc charges. Normalizing both, pretax earnings run $13,537 million against $13,122 million, or +3.2%. The cleaner read is total segment income before tax, which is reported above the unallocated talc line: $13,982 million versus $13,387 million, up 4.4%.

A note on non-GAAP: every figure above is GAAP as filed. J&J's press materials lead with adjusted EPS, which excludes intangible amortization — $1.5 billion in Innovative Medicine and roughly $1.0 billion in MedTech over six months — plus talc charges, restructuring and separation costs. The gap is not cosmetic: Q2 adjusted EPS was $2.90 against GAAP diluted EPS of $2.27, a 28% spread. Adjusted and GAAP results tell materially different stories this quarter.

2-2. Segment Economics and Operating Leverage

Segment (Q2)Sales 2025 ($M)Sales 2026 ($M)Income 2025 ($M)Income 2026 ($M)Margin 2026 (%)
Innovative Medicine15,20216,3845,5526,24938.1
MedTech8,5418,9261,2041,17713.2
Total segments23,74325,3106,7567,42629.3

This table contains the quarter's real tension. Innovative Medicine grew sales 7.8% and segment income 12.6%, expanding margin to 38.1% from 36.5%. MedTech grew sales 4.5% but segment income fell 2.2%, with margin down to 13.2% from 14.1%. Over six months MedTech is worse: income down 8.0% to $2,416 million, margin down more than two points to 13.8% from 15.9%.

Aggregate operating leverage remains healthy — total segment income rose 9.9% on 6.6% sales growth, roughly 1.5x — but it is entirely a pharmaceutical phenomenon. MedTech is carrying separation costs and R&D that grew 20.2% to $778 million from $647 million, against sales growth of 4.5%. That is deliberate investment, but it is currently negative leverage.

On the cost structure, cost of products sold at 31.8% of sales is the principal variable component and is improving as mix shifts toward high-margin oncology biologics. R&D at 14.4% and the bulk of SM&A behave as fixed commitments. The asymmetry is stark by segment: Innovative Medicine spends 17.5% of sales on R&D, MedTech 8.7%.


3. Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

Item (Fiscal Six Months)2025 ($M)2026 ($M)Change
Net cash from operating activities8,05211,130+38.2%
Net cash used for investing(18,561)(2,150)−88.4%
Net cash from/(used for) financing4,757(8,247)Reversed
Cash at end of period18,57720,422+9.9%

Operating cash flow of $11,130 million against $8,052 million is a 38.2% improvement, and it is higher quality than the headline suggests. The prior-year period was depressed by roughly $12.1 billion of combined outflows in other assets and other liabilities as the talc bankruptcy reserve unwound. Free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow less the $2,370 million of capital additions, comes to $8,760 million against $6,214 million — up 41.0%.

Quality of earnings tells the same story from the other side. Operating cash flow divided by net earnings is 1.03 this period against 0.49 last year. That prior-year 0.49 was not an earnings-quality failure but the arithmetic consequence of a $7.0 billion non-cash gain inflating the denominator. At 1.03, current earnings are fully cash-backed.

Capital expenditure at 4.8% of six-month sales ($2,370 million on $49,372 million) is running well above the prior year's 4.0%, with Innovative Medicine additions jumping 69% to $1,161 million from $687 million while MedTech additions were essentially flat at $1,102 million against $1,071 million — the build-out is concentrated almost entirely in Innovative Medicine. Investing outflows collapsed to $2,150 million from $18,561 million simply because the prior year contained $14,458 million of acquisitions, principally Intra-Cellular.

The financing swing deserves attention. J&J returned $10,607 million to shareholders in six months — $6,358 million of dividends at $2.64 per share, up 3.9% from $2.54, and $4,249 million of cash paid for buybacks, essentially double the prior year's $2,127 million. That is 121% of free cash flow.

One detail undercuts the buyback optics. Over the six months, treasury shares held fell only to 711,615,000 from 711,904,000, and treasury stock at cost rose just $239 million despite $4,253 million of repurchases as recorded in the equity statement (the $4M difference from the $4,249 million cash flow line is the excise tax and settlement timing) — because $4,014 million of stock was reissued under employee compensation plans. On a year-over-year basis, diluted share count consequently rose 0.87% to 2,440.1 million from 2,419.1 million. With net earnings flat, that share-count increase is essentially the entire explanation for diluted EPS falling to $2.27 from $2.29. The buyback is currently offsetting dilution, not shrinking the share base.


4. Additional Analysis

The STELARA-to-TREMFYA handoff looks complete in the quarter, less so year to date. STELARA fell 55.2% to $740 million from $1,653 million in the quarter, with US sales down 68.8% to $336 million from $1,078 million as biosimilars took hold. TREMFYA rose 72.5% to $2,046 million from $1,186 million, US sales up 79.7% to $1,465 million. The $860 million gain against a $913 million loss is a 94% dollar replacement within the quarter.

The six-month view is the more honest one, and it is meaningfully weaker. TREMFYA added $1,512 million over six months (to $3,654 million from $2,142 million) while STELARA gave up $1,882 million (to $1,396 million from $3,278 million) — an 80% replacement rate, not 94%. The single-quarter figure reads better because STELARA's decline is decelerating off a much lower base while TREMFYA compounds. The direction of travel is favorable, and the crossover point is close, but the headline 94% overstates how complete the handoff has been across the year to date.

Management raised full-year guidance, and the raise is denominated in adjusted numbers. Alongside the quarter, J&J lifted 2026 reported sales guidance to $101.1 billion, 7.3% growth at the midpoint, and raised adjusted EPS guidance by $0.13 to $11.68, 8.2% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted operational EPS up $0.18 to $11.58. That would put annual revenue above $100 billion for the first time. Investors should note the unit of account: the guided metric is adjusted EPS, and at a 28% spread to GAAP this quarter, the two pressures documented above — the 330-basis-point rise in the effective tax rate and the 0.87% increase in diluted shares — pass through to GAAP EPS while being largely invisible in the number management guides to. The revenue thesis is intact; the earnings-leverage question is not yet answered.

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